All is forgiven
11.01 am APRA came through with benign capital requirements, both in percentage terms and time frame to raise the extra capital so the banks have reversed hard with pretty much everything else being sold down, especially resources as the Australian dollar strength and a disappointing quarterly from BHP hit the sector. My resources longs are AWC and IGO and both are down over 2% so I may need to make a decision on them today. Otherwise, I've closed a short in BEN - too early as it turns out as the regional banks are not joining in the rally and also bought back a NCM short that I added late for a good gain of 33 cents.
Market is only up 20 but I think it will hold and run having bounced off support again.
11.23 am A pretty quick recovery, ASX 200 now up 36 points. I've decided to buy some DOW, long at 629. Stock hasn't definitely confirmed but looks well bid on the day and I'm hoping to pre-empt the breakout. Here's the latest chart.
I've bought a very small amount of BTT at 1091, trying to work my way into a position. My thesis is that the sell off since early May is a 3 wave correction and there's a possibility that the stock can resume the rally if today's low turns out to be a higher low. It's up to 1101 and I'm hoping to add some more at 1097 if it eases back. There's definitely no signal yet so no need to push at the trade. Here's the chart.
1.14 pm The ASX 200 has barely moved in the last two hours after some early volatility. It's broadly a story of the banks first and daylight second although there are a couple of strong movers elsewhere.
Downer has performed well and is now at 638, up 15 while BTT slipped back and I've added more stock at 1097 to take my average entry price to 1094. Otherwise, AWC has come off the canvas slightly to be down 1.3% but IGO can't rally. I've had to grit my teeth in JHG which I'm long at an average price of just over 4400. This looked ready to break out but has chopped back, driven largely by Aussie dollar strength as the US listing has been pretty flat. The current chart shows that it's comfortably above support but obviously you hope for instant gratification when you put on a trade, or at least I do.
1.58 pm Consensus was that the foreign exchange market misinterpreted the Reserve Bank minutes yesterday but the AUD is staying stubbornly high, holding yesterday's gains and adding a smidgen more. However, iron ore prices are strong again in China and FMG has recovered to be up 1% on the day while most of the rest of the resources stocks are well off the lows. AWC is almost back to square at 197.5 and I bought and sold a few to edge my average entry price lower.
I bought back into SGR at 524, having sold out the last few around 530. It's trading at 522 and I'm on the bid for more at 518 in case it drifts lower as I think this is simply a correction.
3.32 pm The market has started to grind higher and should finish well, up 52 points at present.
I've started to buy into Seek. It made a higher low earlier this month after a pullback that ran for about a month from early May. If it can push through 1750 it may be able to move to 1850 in the next week or two. Here's the chart.
I'm looking to add a short position in QBE. I've been waiting a little while for the correction to complete and was tempted yesterday but felt it was inconclusive as it was holding a minor uptrend channel. Anyway, it seems to have cracked that today and I'll start to put on a position here.
4.25 pm I was a little surprised to see the market ease off into the close as the ASX 200 finished 45 points higher. It was mostly a poor day for me with DOW a bright spot. IGO is the problem position as it has failed and could now test 300 again. I sold a quarter out on the close at 314 and would normally have sold it all but WSA - which usually trades in line with IGO - held quite well and the market is so randomly volatile, not just on an index level but on a sector and stock level, that I'm suspicious of false breaks. For example, most of the big 4 banks came up as sells yesterday afternoon even though I felt there was a strong chance of benign APRA requirements which would lead to a snap back rally. That happened but there was no technical justification for taking the trade, it was enough to avoid the bear trap.
Market is only up 20 but I think it will hold and run having bounced off support again.
11.23 am A pretty quick recovery, ASX 200 now up 36 points. I've decided to buy some DOW, long at 629. Stock hasn't definitely confirmed but looks well bid on the day and I'm hoping to pre-empt the breakout. Here's the latest chart.
I've bought a very small amount of BTT at 1091, trying to work my way into a position. My thesis is that the sell off since early May is a 3 wave correction and there's a possibility that the stock can resume the rally if today's low turns out to be a higher low. It's up to 1101 and I'm hoping to add some more at 1097 if it eases back. There's definitely no signal yet so no need to push at the trade. Here's the chart.
1.14 pm The ASX 200 has barely moved in the last two hours after some early volatility. It's broadly a story of the banks first and daylight second although there are a couple of strong movers elsewhere.
Downer has performed well and is now at 638, up 15 while BTT slipped back and I've added more stock at 1097 to take my average entry price to 1094. Otherwise, AWC has come off the canvas slightly to be down 1.3% but IGO can't rally. I've had to grit my teeth in JHG which I'm long at an average price of just over 4400. This looked ready to break out but has chopped back, driven largely by Aussie dollar strength as the US listing has been pretty flat. The current chart shows that it's comfortably above support but obviously you hope for instant gratification when you put on a trade, or at least I do.
1.58 pm Consensus was that the foreign exchange market misinterpreted the Reserve Bank minutes yesterday but the AUD is staying stubbornly high, holding yesterday's gains and adding a smidgen more. However, iron ore prices are strong again in China and FMG has recovered to be up 1% on the day while most of the rest of the resources stocks are well off the lows. AWC is almost back to square at 197.5 and I bought and sold a few to edge my average entry price lower.
I bought back into SGR at 524, having sold out the last few around 530. It's trading at 522 and I'm on the bid for more at 518 in case it drifts lower as I think this is simply a correction.
3.32 pm The market has started to grind higher and should finish well, up 52 points at present.
I've started to buy into Seek. It made a higher low earlier this month after a pullback that ran for about a month from early May. If it can push through 1750 it may be able to move to 1850 in the next week or two. Here's the chart.
I'm looking to add a short position in QBE. I've been waiting a little while for the correction to complete and was tempted yesterday but felt it was inconclusive as it was holding a minor uptrend channel. Anyway, it seems to have cracked that today and I'll start to put on a position here.
4.25 pm I was a little surprised to see the market ease off into the close as the ASX 200 finished 45 points higher. It was mostly a poor day for me with DOW a bright spot. IGO is the problem position as it has failed and could now test 300 again. I sold a quarter out on the close at 314 and would normally have sold it all but WSA - which usually trades in line with IGO - held quite well and the market is so randomly volatile, not just on an index level but on a sector and stock level, that I'm suspicious of false breaks. For example, most of the big 4 banks came up as sells yesterday afternoon even though I felt there was a strong chance of benign APRA requirements which would lead to a snap back rally. That happened but there was no technical justification for taking the trade, it was enough to avoid the bear trap.
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