Exogenous shock
12.20 pm The recovery continues apace with the index a further 36 points up to 6078.
A large US house downgraded lithium on the basis of all planned expansion taking place - has never happened in human history - and a limited increase in demand. They're on their own there but it means that the Aussie listed stocks have been carted early with Orocobre down 7%. I did have some slight concerns and fortunately sold a third on the close at 695 but it's still not a good outcome.
Otherwise, I got lucky in Iluka where I held a small long into the result and the stock has jumped by 5%. My shorts have performed OK with ORG pretty flat and TWE up 20 but I sold early and bought back lower to reduce the damage.
It's a mixed picture in the small caps with Synlait breaking up but Bubs retracing.
1.12 pm It seems as if the market is with me in terms of a degree of scepticism about the bear case for the lithium stocks and most have recovered solidly from some pretty heavy early losses. The best of them, and more of a diversified stock, is Mineral Resources. I've been watching this for a while and bought some on early weakness at 1915. There's no real buy signal but I'm looking to hold into a shallow correction for the next leg up.
1.43 pm I was hoping for a breakout in SM1 with the stock needing to trade through 662. It's up to 672 now so looking pretty good.
3.21 pm The gains have eased, unsurprisingly, as it's been a good run. I added a small short in BSL today at around 1628. It went higher but is back there now. It's a short term hedge really but the stock is displaying some fatigue after hitting a new high yesterday and this morning and selling off both days. There's been a nice leg up which I suspect is not quite complete but nearly there. So, a small position for now.
The other shorts have gone ok with ORG now down on the day and TWE barely up.
4.23 pm The gap kept filling in the ASX 200 with the final count 15 points up to 6057. If it keeps going up, which I think it will, I'd guess that the same pattern of selling off through the day will continue.
I got carried away with intraday trading today and cost myself a few bucks, probably because I was trying to compensate for Orocobre. The small caps were ok with SM1 closing up 29 at 676. Bubs reports tomorrow so after buying some more at 94 and checking re the result, I tipped out the extra stock at 95.5. I also bought a handful of Creso Pharmaceuticals which is one of the new pot stocks. I'm hoping this is the start of a wave up which might go to around 115-120. Long at 92. The stock reported its first revenues today.
A large US house downgraded lithium on the basis of all planned expansion taking place - has never happened in human history - and a limited increase in demand. They're on their own there but it means that the Aussie listed stocks have been carted early with Orocobre down 7%. I did have some slight concerns and fortunately sold a third on the close at 695 but it's still not a good outcome.
Otherwise, I got lucky in Iluka where I held a small long into the result and the stock has jumped by 5%. My shorts have performed OK with ORG pretty flat and TWE up 20 but I sold early and bought back lower to reduce the damage.
It's a mixed picture in the small caps with Synlait breaking up but Bubs retracing.
1.12 pm It seems as if the market is with me in terms of a degree of scepticism about the bear case for the lithium stocks and most have recovered solidly from some pretty heavy early losses. The best of them, and more of a diversified stock, is Mineral Resources. I've been watching this for a while and bought some on early weakness at 1915. There's no real buy signal but I'm looking to hold into a shallow correction for the next leg up.
1.43 pm I was hoping for a breakout in SM1 with the stock needing to trade through 662. It's up to 672 now so looking pretty good.
3.21 pm The gains have eased, unsurprisingly, as it's been a good run. I added a small short in BSL today at around 1628. It went higher but is back there now. It's a short term hedge really but the stock is displaying some fatigue after hitting a new high yesterday and this morning and selling off both days. There's been a nice leg up which I suspect is not quite complete but nearly there. So, a small position for now.
4.23 pm The gap kept filling in the ASX 200 with the final count 15 points up to 6057. If it keeps going up, which I think it will, I'd guess that the same pattern of selling off through the day will continue.
I got carried away with intraday trading today and cost myself a few bucks, probably because I was trying to compensate for Orocobre. The small caps were ok with SM1 closing up 29 at 676. Bubs reports tomorrow so after buying some more at 94 and checking re the result, I tipped out the extra stock at 95.5. I also bought a handful of Creso Pharmaceuticals which is one of the new pot stocks. I'm hoping this is the start of a wave up which might go to around 115-120. Long at 92. The stock reported its first revenues today.
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