Seeking refuge
11.32 am The US indices fell heavily on Friday after the January melt up with echoes of February 1994 when an unexpected rise in bond rates took the wind out of equities. This rate rise has not been unexpected but the pace of change is concerning markets.
My trade of the day for Friday was TPM and that has underperformed the market as it looks as if I bought the top of an exploratory push rather than the start of a new trend. My shortlist of three stocks was rounded out by gold miner NST and healthcare company CSL. Of these three stocks, CSL is the best performer having risen 0.1% compared to a 1.2% drop in the market. This is par for the course in a falling market as participants seek safe havens.
In the small caps, I sold the AMA early for breakeven and the Wattle Health at 229, down from Friday's close of 244. It was a mistake to hold that because I'm in the game of capitalising on the short term momentum and not waiting for the next swing higher. It was a good trade but I left that difference on the table.
3.22 pm TPM has improved from its worst levels early but hasn't bounced a great deal, still down 17 to 638. The ASX 200 is also off the lows having been down as much as 122 points but now off 93.
My take on the US market is that this is a pullback in a bull market that hasn't peaked yet but is close to the peak and is likely to become increasingly volatile.
4.11 pm TPM rolled over again and I sold at 634 just before the close although that's where it finished anyway. So a pretty dismal trade of the day with a loss of 3.2%.
Today's pick is a long in BHP at the closing price of 3015. It's in a good uptrend and has had a choppy, shallow correction. It bounced off 3000 last week and slipped below that level today only to regain the mark and finish above the day's open.
I couldn't see a small cap trade that stood out, Amaysim was the closest but didn't quite push enough to trigger a buy.
My trade of the day for Friday was TPM and that has underperformed the market as it looks as if I bought the top of an exploratory push rather than the start of a new trend. My shortlist of three stocks was rounded out by gold miner NST and healthcare company CSL. Of these three stocks, CSL is the best performer having risen 0.1% compared to a 1.2% drop in the market. This is par for the course in a falling market as participants seek safe havens.
In the small caps, I sold the AMA early for breakeven and the Wattle Health at 229, down from Friday's close of 244. It was a mistake to hold that because I'm in the game of capitalising on the short term momentum and not waiting for the next swing higher. It was a good trade but I left that difference on the table.
3.22 pm TPM has improved from its worst levels early but hasn't bounced a great deal, still down 17 to 638. The ASX 200 is also off the lows having been down as much as 122 points but now off 93.
My take on the US market is that this is a pullback in a bull market that hasn't peaked yet but is close to the peak and is likely to become increasingly volatile.
4.11 pm TPM rolled over again and I sold at 634 just before the close although that's where it finished anyway. So a pretty dismal trade of the day with a loss of 3.2%.
Today's pick is a long in BHP at the closing price of 3015. It's in a good uptrend and has had a choppy, shallow correction. It bounced off 3000 last week and slipped below that level today only to regain the mark and finish above the day's open.
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