Backing and filling
12.49 pm One of those days for me with a give back of recent gains as leading stocks pause with the exception of the banks which have kept the index steady.
Aristocrat is the problem position, falling 90 to 3101 so my thought around the doji style gap up was wrong or at least was the exception rather than the rule. MFG and PTM are modestly lower while shorts in PRY and TLS are helping. QAN, however, has also filled a gap and with the completion of the buyback the stock doesn't have the usual intraday support.
One trade that I considered taking ahead of QAN was DMP. It's an interesting example of how human nature can override strategy. Whereas QAN had gapped and was perhaps a 50/50 chance of pausing or retracing, DMP had confirmed a break with an early move and then retraced for most of the day without significantly changing the picture meaning that any further gap filling was less likely. It can be hard to take these signals as the stock that's performed well during the day looks much more attractive. If you're trading on a longer term basis it's really not significant. However, I'm looking to maximise my time and capital and since I have tight stops, these meaningless moves on a larger scale can end up being something where I have to realise a loss. Here's the daily chart for Domino's.
Another interesting possibility from yesterday afternoon's options was Harvey Norman. This had the cup pattern I wrote about earlier in the week with Boral. Like Boral, it's under pressure at the moment but it's a viable one day hold generally. It's important to note that the pattern needs to be preceded by a decent swing in the other direction, it's insignificant if it appears in the middle of a range. It may not be a gun trade but it seems to be high probability and a gain of 1.3% on a flat day is decent. It's also a good strategic play for a Friday after an extremely strong week where the big winners are likely to ease and weak stocks to rally. Unsurprisingly, JBH had much the same set up and is also up over 1%.
4.29 pm A sour end to the week for me. Bugger. I'm trying to focus on holding on to the money I make. For the last 6 months it's been 3 steps forward and 3 steps back. A lot of the errors are avoidable.
Anyway, out of the Synlait in the small caps as it stalled for a small gain and into Reece Holdings. Long at 1243 as it looks to resume after a sideways congestion.
The ASX 200 only lost 7 points as the banks ran again. I took off half of ALL, MFG, PTM and QAN as I'm not convinced the rallies are over, merely that I bought or held gaps higher. I closed out the TLS short at 266 and added shorts in LNK and PGH. Link is rolling over again after a flat 3 wave consolidation where wave 3 chopped up in a minor 5 wave pattern.
Aristocrat is the problem position, falling 90 to 3101 so my thought around the doji style gap up was wrong or at least was the exception rather than the rule. MFG and PTM are modestly lower while shorts in PRY and TLS are helping. QAN, however, has also filled a gap and with the completion of the buyback the stock doesn't have the usual intraday support.
One trade that I considered taking ahead of QAN was DMP. It's an interesting example of how human nature can override strategy. Whereas QAN had gapped and was perhaps a 50/50 chance of pausing or retracing, DMP had confirmed a break with an early move and then retraced for most of the day without significantly changing the picture meaning that any further gap filling was less likely. It can be hard to take these signals as the stock that's performed well during the day looks much more attractive. If you're trading on a longer term basis it's really not significant. However, I'm looking to maximise my time and capital and since I have tight stops, these meaningless moves on a larger scale can end up being something where I have to realise a loss. Here's the daily chart for Domino's.
4.29 pm A sour end to the week for me. Bugger. I'm trying to focus on holding on to the money I make. For the last 6 months it's been 3 steps forward and 3 steps back. A lot of the errors are avoidable.
Anyway, out of the Synlait in the small caps as it stalled for a small gain and into Reece Holdings. Long at 1243 as it looks to resume after a sideways congestion.
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