Safe space
11.42 am The ASX 200 is 23 points higher at 6127 as the Australian market sails serenely along, ignoring trade war fears as we're largely unaffected. Best of my positions is IAG which is up a further 2.7%. Cochlear is a slight concern as it grinds back up. I think there'll be another test of 190 bucks to the downside but in the interim, the stock is pushing back towards the breakdown line for this swing which is around 19700.
One set up that often seems to work is to buy the tight inside day after a breakout. Sometimes there'll be two or three such days but today Macquarie bank is a classic example, resuming a strong move after just one day of congestion.
1.07 pm Corporate Travel is another example of a tight congestion day near the top of the range after a breakout. Following the pause that refreshes it has gained another 1.8%.
Despite the upcoming OPEC meeting, the oils are firm and STO has pushed through 600 resistance and the 50 day moving average. I should probably build the position size back up if it finishes here or better.
3.29 pm Trade war fears are beginning to hit the Australian resource sector and I'm getting sell signals in quite a few stocks such as ALQ, BSL, FMG and S32. Here's BSL as an example. A very marginal new high was struck a week ago followed by a slightly lower one and a break of 1800 today. The big picture is fine but short term it's a sell.
4.23 pm The index faded to close down 2 at 6102 and looks vulnerable for tomorrow. I cut longs in IAG and QAN and couldn't decide whether to buy more Santos or not and just left a part position. I bought back half the COH short although it did sell off late and added a new short in ALQ. My new long is Treasury Wine which has been recovering cautiously and started to accelerate today on news that the backlog of wines at the ports is being cleared. It may be a safe haven in this market.
The small cap book was only two positions but didn't do well with Domain swinging lower. I've traded this a couple of times recently and it makes buy signals, reverses and then reverses back up. I guess it's not liquid enough and is being messed around by the algos. I decided to wait and see. Meanwhile I missed out on selling the rest of the LNG as they sold off further than I expected on the match. I'll look to deal intraday tomorrow here. One new long was in IDP education which broke out and stalled intraday but still finished at a new high. My thought is that the first reaction may be complete. Long at 1003.
1.07 pm Corporate Travel is another example of a tight congestion day near the top of the range after a breakout. Following the pause that refreshes it has gained another 1.8%.
3.29 pm Trade war fears are beginning to hit the Australian resource sector and I'm getting sell signals in quite a few stocks such as ALQ, BSL, FMG and S32. Here's BSL as an example. A very marginal new high was struck a week ago followed by a slightly lower one and a break of 1800 today. The big picture is fine but short term it's a sell.
4.23 pm The index faded to close down 2 at 6102 and looks vulnerable for tomorrow. I cut longs in IAG and QAN and couldn't decide whether to buy more Santos or not and just left a part position. I bought back half the COH short although it did sell off late and added a new short in ALQ. My new long is Treasury Wine which has been recovering cautiously and started to accelerate today on news that the backlog of wines at the ports is being cleared. It may be a safe haven in this market.
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