Next level
11.18 am Yesterday's bounce started from around 5680 where the market today has tentatively started to bounce from 5660, the next level down in this narrow striated trading range.
Ansell is actually unchanged and I've added a new long in GEM. I'm generally reluctant to buy on news, especially a blip up in a falling market because it can easily retrace intraday. However, this stock has been on my radar for a few days as it started to roll up and I eventually paid 382.5. It's a touch higher now so my nerves have eased here. However, it's essentially a low growth yield stock and given the slowly turning interest rate cycle and pressure on the REIT sector today after the Fed meeting last night, I'm slightly surprised that it's holding.
The broad market story seems to be sell on fact after Fed confirmation of tapering and the prospect of a rate hike in December. Ours is a yield driven market due to franking and the demands of the super industry so there is a logic to it but it has been heavily signposted, the US market was unchanged, US futures are unchanged and currencies aren't doing much.
Having said that, in the normal course of events, I'd see the ASX 200 chart as quite likely to break lower but recent experience of this trading range suggests that won't happen.
1.38 pm The market fell further and we're just off the lows at 5642, 67 points down. It really does look as if it could be different this time but I'm waiting to see how the afternoon unfolds.
3.51 pm The cavalry turned up soon after the last post and the market is down 48 to 5661 but continuing to look a little vulnerable.
I was short some ALL last night and bought back a bit too soon. I'm thinking of going again after an intraday recovery.
4.28 pm There was a late fade with the index closing down 54.
I held some OSH late night, looking to sell on a retracement. I sold half of the balance at 687 with the stock finishing at 681. I held some because the sector was firm and STO is almost a buy.
Otherwise I sold half the GEM at 394 and held ANN which was down 9 but cut LLC for a loss of 12. I was hurt by a couple of lazy longs. BSL although I got out early enough and JBH which was pretty marginal and closed down 3%.
The small cap book had a reasonable day with EML, RWC and PPH being the picks. I got out of PPH at 229 which wasn't far from the intraday high.
Losers were CGC, which I'm comfortable holding, and SDA which I think I need to exit, hopefully tomorrow on a bounce. The net result was a gain.
The broad market story seems to be sell on fact after Fed confirmation of tapering and the prospect of a rate hike in December. Ours is a yield driven market due to franking and the demands of the super industry so there is a logic to it but it has been heavily signposted, the US market was unchanged, US futures are unchanged and currencies aren't doing much.
Having said that, in the normal course of events, I'd see the ASX 200 chart as quite likely to break lower but recent experience of this trading range suggests that won't happen.
1.38 pm The market fell further and we're just off the lows at 5642, 67 points down. It really does look as if it could be different this time but I'm waiting to see how the afternoon unfolds.
3.51 pm The cavalry turned up soon after the last post and the market is down 48 to 5661 but continuing to look a little vulnerable.
I was short some ALL last night and bought back a bit too soon. I'm thinking of going again after an intraday recovery.
4.28 pm There was a late fade with the index closing down 54.
I held some OSH late night, looking to sell on a retracement. I sold half of the balance at 687 with the stock finishing at 681. I held some because the sector was firm and STO is almost a buy.
Otherwise I sold half the GEM at 394 and held ANN which was down 9 but cut LLC for a loss of 12. I was hurt by a couple of lazy longs. BSL although I got out early enough and JBH which was pretty marginal and closed down 3%.
The small cap book had a reasonable day with EML, RWC and PPH being the picks. I got out of PPH at 229 which wasn't far from the intraday high.
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