Still waiting for Oil Search
11.23 am The chance of an early rally evaporated as North Korea launched another missile leaving the Aussie market down 25 points now. US futures are lower by about a tenth of a percent so we could be due a retracement once the market finds its low. Japanese markets are up 0.2% and the missile went over Japanese airspace again. The Kospi is down 0.16%. We tend to overreact to these things, some kind of hangover from the old tyranny of distance despite the world having become a much smaller place in practical terms?
I've added to the Monadelphous position as it has pushed a bit higher but Oil Search is down 2 to 676 despite another good night for oil and a slightly softer Aussie dollar. I sold some on the open at 681 in case we had another day like this but I'm anticipating a run later in the day and I might add back if that eventuates.
WEB is down 25 perhaps on geopolitical worries but QAN is holding well. I don't think it's significant.
There isn't much that's in the green today and the market is now down 29 points but it seems pretty technical, algo stuff.
12.28 pm The index is at 5696, 42 points lower. I suppose the market thinks this time is different in terms of whether the support holds around 5650-5680 but I suspect everyone is just going to lunch and it's the machines trading against each other.
My small cap book is long only but holding quite well really. The active book is actually doing a bit worse despite having some shorts. The short positions haven't really performed though so haven't helped. My overall position size is pretty small so I'm willing to hold most things I have and wait till Monday.
12.58 pm MND couldn't sustain the early strength and rolled over. I'm not too sure what to think now but I'll probably hold on overnight as it's not the day to cut longs given how close we are to solid support.
1.56 pm The market found a level and is chugging back up. Down 35 points versus a low of minus 52.
I was interested in BTT this morning because this is closed linked to the AUDGBP exchange rate. With the pound rallying against the AUD and the stock back at an old support level, it looks interesting on a medium term basis but there's no enthusiasm for it today. One to watch though.
3.22 pm Tabcorp is one of the shining lights today with a 10 cent gain to 438. I sold out of that yesterday but takeover target Tatts is shaping up. The relative value of the bid is about 393 and it's trading at 403 but there was another bid last year at 434 and that buyer may still be interested so a small premium is not unreasonable. Here's the chart.
4.33 pm A tough day for the market with an exit out of resources and banks still unloved. I bought the TTS on the close at 402 and shaved the BSL and MND longs. I still have a small long in IGO. It's probably stuffed now resources are on the turn but we seem oversold and it's just above support so I'm looking for a small bounce.
I bought some BAL for the small cap book on the match too. The market is concerned about A2M's involvement in the Murray Goulburn situation and Bellamy's might be getting some switching. There has been a slow flat correction and a decent bounce today. Here's hoping.
I've added to the Monadelphous position as it has pushed a bit higher but Oil Search is down 2 to 676 despite another good night for oil and a slightly softer Aussie dollar. I sold some on the open at 681 in case we had another day like this but I'm anticipating a run later in the day and I might add back if that eventuates.
WEB is down 25 perhaps on geopolitical worries but QAN is holding well. I don't think it's significant.
There isn't much that's in the green today and the market is now down 29 points but it seems pretty technical, algo stuff.
12.28 pm The index is at 5696, 42 points lower. I suppose the market thinks this time is different in terms of whether the support holds around 5650-5680 but I suspect everyone is just going to lunch and it's the machines trading against each other.
My small cap book is long only but holding quite well really. The active book is actually doing a bit worse despite having some shorts. The short positions haven't really performed though so haven't helped. My overall position size is pretty small so I'm willing to hold most things I have and wait till Monday.
12.58 pm MND couldn't sustain the early strength and rolled over. I'm not too sure what to think now but I'll probably hold on overnight as it's not the day to cut longs given how close we are to solid support.
1.56 pm The market found a level and is chugging back up. Down 35 points versus a low of minus 52.
I was interested in BTT this morning because this is closed linked to the AUDGBP exchange rate. With the pound rallying against the AUD and the stock back at an old support level, it looks interesting on a medium term basis but there's no enthusiasm for it today. One to watch though.
3.22 pm Tabcorp is one of the shining lights today with a 10 cent gain to 438. I sold out of that yesterday but takeover target Tatts is shaping up. The relative value of the bid is about 393 and it's trading at 403 but there was another bid last year at 434 and that buyer may still be interested so a small premium is not unreasonable. Here's the chart.
4.33 pm A tough day for the market with an exit out of resources and banks still unloved. I bought the TTS on the close at 402 and shaved the BSL and MND longs. I still have a small long in IGO. It's probably stuffed now resources are on the turn but we seem oversold and it's just above support so I'm looking for a small bounce.
I bought some BAL for the small cap book on the match too. The market is concerned about A2M's involvement in the Murray Goulburn situation and Bellamy's might be getting some switching. There has been a slow flat correction and a decent bounce today. Here's hoping.
Comments
Post a Comment