Upgrades for GEM

11.58 GEM has been my large cap stand out today as it garnered some upgrades after yesterday's announcement. The company had copped criticism for paying too much for acquisitions and had refocussed on organic growth. However, yesterday's announcement of acquisitions got a tick of approval because the price was compelling enough to act. Valuations have been raised to the 440, 450 range. The intraday peak was 421 and I got some away at 416 which I bought back at 407 where it's now trading. I think it might firm again as the broad market is tentatively rallying after yesterday's overkill but still looks vulnerable to further downside and a break of the range.

The small cap book is doing well again with UPD gradually rolling back up and Get Swift doing likewise. I was long a very small amount of GSW from a couple of days ago and added a little more at 194 this morning. I'm hoping this is a simple resumption which would target a new high.

12.20 pm I've been puzzling over the Oil Search performance over the last week as it looked set to rally only to fade unusually. Last night there was a sale of a 2.1% tranche of shares below market. The floor price was 655 but the trade went through at 670 showing decent demand. The share price performance implies that larger market participants had an idea there was stock being offered but there's no point fretting about that sort of thing, the upshot is that the shares should be able to perform now.

2.43 pm The market is up 18 points but it seems like retracement rather than the start of a new drive to the top of the range. I've cleared the decks or close to it but I have added a long in S32 which is charting well and assisted by a large share buy back. It's also exposed to in demand Aluminium which compensates for any potential easing in coal prices. Long at 322.

3.50 pm GEM is up to 415. I've sold some at 414 and I'll sell the balance on the match. I'll be left with a long in S32 and one I've just added in SWM. The stock is in the doldrums but there's a higher low on the weekly and now the daily. It's possible that the Stokes family is more a seller than a buyer of media assets given the expansion to full ownership of Coates and the push into oil and gas. Or it could be just some buying ahead of Monday's 2 cents dividend.
I still like OSH but it's not happening yet and I'll exit until further notice, ideally a break of 700.

4.39 pm The market closed pretty near the high at 5682, a rise of 27 points. I have a small long book via S32 and SWM. I would normally expect further weakness but the range held yesterday and I couldn't really see any compelling shorts.
The small cap book is running its own race and made a small profit again. I'm most interesting in GSW and UPD although I have a position in Beach that's looking positive too. I bought this simply to be a stock holder in the event of a fund raising for Lattice. The idea being that this is the only thing stopping the stock from rallying more and the SPP would be attractive in that eventuality. The chart shows what could be the beginning of a period of share price acceleration.


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