Rexit
12.20 pm Rexit - I stole it but too good not to use. The market is down on the usual Trump Derangement Syndrome and I have a few decisions to make in the large caps, specifically in Boral.
BLD, NXT and SYD are all down about 1.5% whereas the broad market is 0.8% lower. The overnight leads were good in the sense that US inflation is still benign but the US markets sold off about 0.7% on the usual hysteria. Given Trump's success with North Korea, I'd say that the policy of taking the kid gloves off is showing signs of success but Tillerson is old school and the market is comfortable with that. Trump's shtick of I'm madder than you is working. But maybe he needs Rex as the good cop to his bad cop?
So, I sold the last of the A2M, a bit too low at 1283 but well above the entry level of 1227. AWC is steady and neither here nor there, Boral is down 12 to 754 and close to recent support of 749 which - within reason - would be my stop.
NXT is down 10 to 679 and still ranging rather than pushing on to the new highs I'm looking for. At this point, I'm inclined to stay in this as it has been very resilient in a flaky market.
Resolute is up 2.5 to 120.5 and showing signs the correction is over and another swing to, say, 130 might be underway. I'll probably add to this later.
Sydney Airport is down 9 to 671 but I'm relaxed about this as I think this swing is tracing out 5 waves and this is the 4th. If I'm correct it will push back above 685 in the next day or two.
My concern is that the ASX 200 doesn't look great having made a lower high - compared to late February - on Monday and overlapped last week's high. It's holding above the 5900 support but is clearly not trending cleanly and risks failing at a third test of 5900.
The small caps have mad a few bob thanks mainly to Synlait. I sold the second portion at 757 and the last of it at 772 soon after the open. It's held close to the high and is currently 768. I was looking for a new high and got it so happy to take it off at a target rather than wait for a reversal as a signal.
2.27 pm The intraday range for the index has been narrow after an opening gap down. I've pretty much decided to get out of Boral by the close as the picture looks bleaker and in retrospect my logic was thin for this trade with the stock in a range rather than a clean trend. By contrast, Resolute is doing well and I bought more at 121, currently up 4 at 122.
3.53 pm I was expecting the index to break lower out of the narrow range and so exited the BLD at 751. Unusually, it has risen a little and I've left something on the table as BLD is back at 754. However, I'm happy to be out still as the trade doesn't make sense to me any more. There's been some recovery in NXT and SYD which is good, I'm happy to hold them along with AWC and RSG.
I've added a new small cap long, Tawana, a lithium play which has started production. I was loath to chase it but eventually did and paid 48.5 because it looks to be accelerating and the rest of the sector is doing well today. I am expecting a test of 60, it's just that this leg is already quite mature so I may well sell tomorrow if it has a good day.
4.24 pm Not the worst day in the end considering the large caps were pretty disappointing. The small caps helped to trim the loss and I noticed that a bunch of small caps that I've been monitoring were largely up which tells me that away from the macro influenced big stocks sentiment is quite strong.
The XJO finished down 39 to 5935.
BLD, NXT and SYD are all down about 1.5% whereas the broad market is 0.8% lower. The overnight leads were good in the sense that US inflation is still benign but the US markets sold off about 0.7% on the usual hysteria. Given Trump's success with North Korea, I'd say that the policy of taking the kid gloves off is showing signs of success but Tillerson is old school and the market is comfortable with that. Trump's shtick of I'm madder than you is working. But maybe he needs Rex as the good cop to his bad cop?
So, I sold the last of the A2M, a bit too low at 1283 but well above the entry level of 1227. AWC is steady and neither here nor there, Boral is down 12 to 754 and close to recent support of 749 which - within reason - would be my stop.
NXT is down 10 to 679 and still ranging rather than pushing on to the new highs I'm looking for. At this point, I'm inclined to stay in this as it has been very resilient in a flaky market.
Resolute is up 2.5 to 120.5 and showing signs the correction is over and another swing to, say, 130 might be underway. I'll probably add to this later.
Sydney Airport is down 9 to 671 but I'm relaxed about this as I think this swing is tracing out 5 waves and this is the 4th. If I'm correct it will push back above 685 in the next day or two.
My concern is that the ASX 200 doesn't look great having made a lower high - compared to late February - on Monday and overlapped last week's high. It's holding above the 5900 support but is clearly not trending cleanly and risks failing at a third test of 5900.
The small caps have mad a few bob thanks mainly to Synlait. I sold the second portion at 757 and the last of it at 772 soon after the open. It's held close to the high and is currently 768. I was looking for a new high and got it so happy to take it off at a target rather than wait for a reversal as a signal.
2.27 pm The intraday range for the index has been narrow after an opening gap down. I've pretty much decided to get out of Boral by the close as the picture looks bleaker and in retrospect my logic was thin for this trade with the stock in a range rather than a clean trend. By contrast, Resolute is doing well and I bought more at 121, currently up 4 at 122.
3.53 pm I was expecting the index to break lower out of the narrow range and so exited the BLD at 751. Unusually, it has risen a little and I've left something on the table as BLD is back at 754. However, I'm happy to be out still as the trade doesn't make sense to me any more. There's been some recovery in NXT and SYD which is good, I'm happy to hold them along with AWC and RSG.
I've added a new small cap long, Tawana, a lithium play which has started production. I was loath to chase it but eventually did and paid 48.5 because it looks to be accelerating and the rest of the sector is doing well today. I am expecting a test of 60, it's just that this leg is already quite mature so I may well sell tomorrow if it has a good day.
4.24 pm Not the worst day in the end considering the large caps were pretty disappointing. The small caps helped to trim the loss and I noticed that a bunch of small caps that I've been monitoring were largely up which tells me that away from the macro influenced big stocks sentiment is quite strong.
The XJO finished down 39 to 5935.
Comments
Post a Comment