Anything you can do...
12.03 pm ....we can do in a more downbeat way. Our response to the US Fed decision was to sell off then rally back. The short term bias was for 3 rate rises in the US this year but more than expected next year. The USD weakened and commodities, especially oil, rallied.
The upshot has been good for my large cap book with all my resource longs solidly higher. I've also taken a flyer on some Orocobre with a buy at 598. The weekly uptrend may well have been broken but there was a double bottom on Tuesday and some acceleration up today, while the sector is firm too. It's up at 608 and if it was to squeeze higher, it could make 650 quite quickly.
The small caps have broadly edged lower giving back yesterday's gains. I sold out of the extra DEG at 17 on the open.
There was another test of 5900 in early trading with a low of 5909 so with the index back at 5951 I suppose it was a successful test. I'm really quite confused about where things are going and I continue to think the risk is to the downside but that is now the 4th time the market has held 5900 since late February when there was a close at 5895 which was quickly recovered - so near enough to 5 times.
2.06 pm Mineral resources has been a star performer for the last couple of years and is starting to recover from a setback that took the stock from a high of 2214 in early January to a low of 1681 in early February and a second, higher low of 1682 on March 7th. It has made a base and is starting to roll up out of it. I'm long at 1844 as the stock congested intraday without really pulling back. Currently a little higher at 1857. A reasonable swing target is 2000.
The market oscillation continues with the index swinging back from the intraday high of 5958 to be down 16 at 5934. There is an ongoing theme of resources buying and yield selling. I was thinking of shorting Scentre Group last night and that has fallen a couple of percent. I hesitated because it was holding a choppy, corrective uptrend. It may yet be worth taking today. It's extended but probably wouldn't do more than bounce back to the bottom of the minor uptrend and the downside would be below 370. It also hit resistance just above 400 on Monday so it has probably done enough by way of retracement.
4.24 pm The market stayed in the red with only a minor improvement to 5937, a drop of 13 points. The narrowing and choppy range means it's a fluky market so I've taken off a quarter to a half of my longs in AWC, BPT, RSG, S32 and STO while adding two more resource longs in MIN and ORE. I've also shorted SCG and SYD which are a victim of the move out of yield plays and I'm looking for further falls. I was long Sydney Airport for a week or so trading a corrective rally and like most of these rallies it was a marginal trade. The momentum looks much better on the short side and if it follows Transurban's chart, it could dip below the recent lows which would be 630 or lower.
The large caps did very well today though the smalls underperformed, not helped by a couple of momentum plays I took in the resource sector which slipped back after I bought them. The net result across the two books was pretty good though.
The upshot has been good for my large cap book with all my resource longs solidly higher. I've also taken a flyer on some Orocobre with a buy at 598. The weekly uptrend may well have been broken but there was a double bottom on Tuesday and some acceleration up today, while the sector is firm too. It's up at 608 and if it was to squeeze higher, it could make 650 quite quickly.
There was another test of 5900 in early trading with a low of 5909 so with the index back at 5951 I suppose it was a successful test. I'm really quite confused about where things are going and I continue to think the risk is to the downside but that is now the 4th time the market has held 5900 since late February when there was a close at 5895 which was quickly recovered - so near enough to 5 times.
2.06 pm Mineral resources has been a star performer for the last couple of years and is starting to recover from a setback that took the stock from a high of 2214 in early January to a low of 1681 in early February and a second, higher low of 1682 on March 7th. It has made a base and is starting to roll up out of it. I'm long at 1844 as the stock congested intraday without really pulling back. Currently a little higher at 1857. A reasonable swing target is 2000.
4.24 pm The market stayed in the red with only a minor improvement to 5937, a drop of 13 points. The narrowing and choppy range means it's a fluky market so I've taken off a quarter to a half of my longs in AWC, BPT, RSG, S32 and STO while adding two more resource longs in MIN and ORE. I've also shorted SCG and SYD which are a victim of the move out of yield plays and I'm looking for further falls. I was long Sydney Airport for a week or so trading a corrective rally and like most of these rallies it was a marginal trade. The momentum looks much better on the short side and if it follows Transurban's chart, it could dip below the recent lows which would be 630 or lower.
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