Dawning realisation
11.40 am The dawning realisation that the tariff proposals are a negotiating tactic and will no doubt be watered down helped markets to recover overnight. The Aussie market has bounced back hard and is up 78 points at 5973.
My positions have done ok with a rising tide lifting all boats but have slightly underperformed the broad market. BHP - which I'm not in - is up 100 to 3011 and it seems as if every time it drifts towards 2900, it's a buying opportunity. I'm concerned about NXT which is up 4 to 671. My hope is that it's ready to resume it's rally after a brief retracement - much like Iluka has done today. Iluka is one I might have taken instead and it has kicked on to a new high.
I expect NextDC to do something similar but at this stage it's unclear as to whether that retracement is over.
Lynas is up 5 and having an inside day close to the highs of yesterday's large range. It's reasonably good though it might do this for a day or two more.
Transurban is up 11 to 1165. That's a 1% gain versus 1.3% for the index but it tends to be less volatile than most stocks and the key is a resumption of the uptrend and a push through last week's high.
In the small caps, Afterpay and BUB rallied nicely early then came all the way back. It looks as if there's no clear direction for now although I'm more hopeful about APT.
1.41 pm A large line of 20 million shares in Lynas went through at a price of 222. Since then the stock has pushed hard and is trading at the day's high of 234. NXT is slightly better and looking quite promising. A similar pattern to NXT is shown below in CCL. It was a toss of a coin whether to take this but I ran out of room. It's a resumption after a brief pullback and the obvious first target is around 920.
4.20 pm The index peaked around midday but held most of the gains finishing up 67 at 5962. There was no change from the RBA as expected and commentary didn't seem to be significant.
Of my three long positions, NXT and TCL were up but underperformed the overall market. However they've done enough for me to keep them. LYC finished at 235 and the shape of the chart makes me think there could be a couple more strong days to come. There's acceleration from a second buy signal following a base around 200. The December high was 240 and that could be breached tomorrow morning. My gut feel is 260 could be close to the top for this swing.
Bubs is almost a cut but I'm hesitant because A2M recovered from a sharp early sell off to finish almost square, Bellamy's rose 5% and WHA recovered from an early 10 cent fall to close up 3 at 223. Wattle Health is the closest comparison and I thought Bubs result looked more interesting than Wattle's. Unlike the large two, they're a fair way from being profitable but the growth in sales, albeit from a low base, along with production capacity and distribution deals makes me quite optimistic about this one. So although I can see a chance of further weakness (BUB fell 1.5 today), the FOMO factor is looming large as I suspect a big swing back if that was to happen.
More straightforwardly, APT eventually finished quite well with an 18 cent push higher to 754. Now it's pulling away from congestion, I'm hopeful of a strong day ahead.
Lastly, I added another small cap long in Auscann at the closing price of 170.5. It's in a strong uptrend, looks to have completed a correction and built a base for the next leg up and it broke through resistance at 160 today. Off the top of my head, I'd guess around 200 for this leg up.
My positions have done ok with a rising tide lifting all boats but have slightly underperformed the broad market. BHP - which I'm not in - is up 100 to 3011 and it seems as if every time it drifts towards 2900, it's a buying opportunity. I'm concerned about NXT which is up 4 to 671. My hope is that it's ready to resume it's rally after a brief retracement - much like Iluka has done today. Iluka is one I might have taken instead and it has kicked on to a new high.
Transurban is up 11 to 1165. That's a 1% gain versus 1.3% for the index but it tends to be less volatile than most stocks and the key is a resumption of the uptrend and a push through last week's high.
1.41 pm A large line of 20 million shares in Lynas went through at a price of 222. Since then the stock has pushed hard and is trading at the day's high of 234. NXT is slightly better and looking quite promising. A similar pattern to NXT is shown below in CCL. It was a toss of a coin whether to take this but I ran out of room. It's a resumption after a brief pullback and the obvious first target is around 920.
4.20 pm The index peaked around midday but held most of the gains finishing up 67 at 5962. There was no change from the RBA as expected and commentary didn't seem to be significant.
Of my three long positions, NXT and TCL were up but underperformed the overall market. However they've done enough for me to keep them. LYC finished at 235 and the shape of the chart makes me think there could be a couple more strong days to come. There's acceleration from a second buy signal following a base around 200. The December high was 240 and that could be breached tomorrow morning. My gut feel is 260 could be close to the top for this swing.
More straightforwardly, APT eventually finished quite well with an 18 cent push higher to 754. Now it's pulling away from congestion, I'm hopeful of a strong day ahead.
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