Beach again

12.34 pm Trump derangement syndrome is so strong that the bleeding obvious came as a shock for the market so that the US indices bounced back strongly following news that China and the US are in trade talks. The Australian top 200 index has followed suit with a bounce back of 0.8% to take the measure back above the 5800 level to 5836.
I missed a trick by not buying NXT on the close as that's up 2.7% while CYB is only marginally higher and the golds are predictably flat despite another rise in the metal and a decent 3% jump in US gold bellwether Newmont. The small caps have bounced nicely although for almost all of these positions the picture is of oscillation in a range rather than the start of a drive higher. Cleanteq is an example of that with a rise of 5 to 121.5 but a larger picture of range trading a little above the new issue price of 115. The weekly trend is intact and support has held well despite a weak market but the stock would need a couple of days of good rises on strong volume to really get going.

Returning to NextDC, I liked the way the stock finished and I see the pattern as a correction above the breakout level where the next impulsive move will take it to new highs but the current wave down didn't seem finished to me. I thought it could have a decent rally then roll over again. As of today, I'm wondering why I didn't just approach it as a day trade.

Also in the One That Got Away file is Boral. The overlapping 5 wave structure from mid Feb onwards is a corrective pattern and the reversal after a minor new low is a pretty good signal. The daily doesn't look compelling as at yesterday's close but the context makes the trade worth taking.

Beach petroleum has a similar pattern where there was a bounce late last week on a reversal following a choppy correction. I was unconvinced with yesterday's action but today is shaping up very well for another leg higher and given the context of the slow correction to a higher low followed by a new leg up then a much closer higher low, I think this can push quickly. Last week's first leg went from a low of 119 to a high of 130.5. If you take a standard Fibonacci expansion of 1.6 times or roughly 17 cents, you get a target of just above 140 which is pretty serious resistance. It's currently at 128 so that's a decent move for a small dollar stock if it unfolds according to my scenario.

3.08 pm I've had a bit of luck in a small cap medical technology company called Adherium. Their software to monitor asthma inhalers has been approved by the US FDA and the stock has surged to 17. I bought some of these on the close at 12.

4.52 pm I'm not convinced we've seen the lows but the index gained 42 points and I'm looking for a couple of days sideways to up. I got out of half the CYB and the RRL which were up a fraction, held the Resolute for one more day and added new longs in Beach and Galaxy. Galaxy is turning after a big correction from the early January highs. There was a higher low in early March which also translated to the weekly charts and the recent high a week or so back implied a change in weekly trend. The subsequent correction has been in 3 small waves - so far - and I'm hoping that is all it needs and the line break today is the start of another leg up. First stop would be 360 although with the cloud having over the market, I'd be happy with a good up day. Long at the closing price of 323 and I was tempted to go for Orocobre instead but this is the better structured chart.

The small caps went really well and I took half of the windfall in ADR at 18.5, reduced the CLQ long at 124.5 and sold out of RWC too. I bought back into Synlait at 842 as it resumes the rally after a short, sharp correction.