Cohn stumble
11.41 am After a flat session overnight and a mildly higher SPI, the subsequent resignation of Gary Cohn has hit the Australian market, down 1% now as we take our lead from US futures which are down about 1.5%. My book is ok really with only NXT a problem but even then it's chopping in what I'm still seeing as a modest retracement before another leg higher. LYC was up as much as 12 cents early but has retraced most of that. I'm contemplating adding to the position but while the market is dropping there doesn't seem to be any rush. Transurban is seeing some safe haven buying and is up about 0.5%. I'm less keen about TCL now as I was looking for an acceleration which hasn't eventuated. It's beginning to look more like a pennant style consolidation which could resolve with a move lower. If it can kick solidly through 1170 my initial scenario would still look plausible but I think today may be decision day for this one.
Resolute is a gold stock that I've followed closely for years. It's much cheaper than its peers but has been going through a development period where profit growth stalled so despite the value on offer the stock has been in the doldrums. The weekly is signalling a strong break higher with trades above 120 on good volume today.
The current swing has taken the stock from last week's low of 110 to today's intraday high of 124.25. I'd like to pick some up around 118-120 and it's possible that the stock could drift a bit later today if the ASX 200 can find support and the hunt for safe havens softens. The stock may take a couple of days to find its way past 120 but the next stop after that would most likely be 140.
Of the small caps, most of my positions are little changed though BUB is down 2 to 78. I kind of expected this but I'm willing to give it more rope because I still think a bullish reversal is on the cards and BAL/WHA are strong again.
1 pm There has been some stabilisation with the market holding above 5900 having touched a low of 5903. It's currently down 41 points at 5921 as US futures have recovered slightly and Asian markets are pretty steady.
Although I'm not trying to trade intraday any more, I'm also not opposed to it where there seems to be an obvious opportunity that I would be willing to hold if it didn't go my way fairly quickly. Hence I added some more Lynas at 238 which I've just sold at 244, roughly where it is now. NextDC has recovered from a short term fall to 659 - on pretty light volume - to be back up 3 at 674 so with TCL also holding gains, it's a pleasing result from the three long positions given the backdrop of a weak market.
2.44 pm The index is now 5899, 63 points off, and seems overdone relative to Asian markets. Anyway, I'm not too fussed as my positions are holding ok. I'm going to exit Transurban by the close for the reasons mentioned earlier and I've bought some RSG at 120 as it has eased back. Lynas is now congesting after the early rally and is back down at 239. I could exit today but I suspect there's another kick to come. I'm using the 30 minute chart for timing and it shows the first leg up post result which took it briefly to 230, followed by a short congestion and another 3rd wave to this morning's high of 247. If this is a 4th wave congestion there's a decent chance of a 5th wave push to around 250. Here's hoping.
4.22 pm The index closed just above 5900 so I can see the possibility that's it could be a slightly higher low than Monday, implying the chance of another leg up. My sense is that the fear of tariffs is muddying the water and the general trend is still bullish so the risk is to the upside.
I'm long LYC, NXT and RSG which all did pretty well. I sold a third of the TCL at 1163 and left the rest till the match. Moments before, the stock was suspended as they announced some legal stuff about a Melbourne project which didn't seem to be negative or positive at first glance, more procedural. I still intend to close out the position and will do so in the morning unless the stock rallies strongly.
The small caps were slightly weaker net with AC8 and BUB the culprits. AC8 looks fine although the shorter term charts lead me to think that the current swing might be close to a peak so I'm offering the stock at 173 - today's high - versus the close of 165. I think it might get there tomorrow and I'm happy to get out and wait for a better opportunity. APT closed up 14 and I'm still expecting one big day. Perhaps if the market calms down, that'll be tomorrow.
Resolute is a gold stock that I've followed closely for years. It's much cheaper than its peers but has been going through a development period where profit growth stalled so despite the value on offer the stock has been in the doldrums. The weekly is signalling a strong break higher with trades above 120 on good volume today.
1 pm There has been some stabilisation with the market holding above 5900 having touched a low of 5903. It's currently down 41 points at 5921 as US futures have recovered slightly and Asian markets are pretty steady.
Although I'm not trying to trade intraday any more, I'm also not opposed to it where there seems to be an obvious opportunity that I would be willing to hold if it didn't go my way fairly quickly. Hence I added some more Lynas at 238 which I've just sold at 244, roughly where it is now. NextDC has recovered from a short term fall to 659 - on pretty light volume - to be back up 3 at 674 so with TCL also holding gains, it's a pleasing result from the three long positions given the backdrop of a weak market.
2.44 pm The index is now 5899, 63 points off, and seems overdone relative to Asian markets. Anyway, I'm not too fussed as my positions are holding ok. I'm going to exit Transurban by the close for the reasons mentioned earlier and I've bought some RSG at 120 as it has eased back. Lynas is now congesting after the early rally and is back down at 239. I could exit today but I suspect there's another kick to come. I'm using the 30 minute chart for timing and it shows the first leg up post result which took it briefly to 230, followed by a short congestion and another 3rd wave to this morning's high of 247. If this is a 4th wave congestion there's a decent chance of a 5th wave push to around 250. Here's hoping.
4.22 pm The index closed just above 5900 so I can see the possibility that's it could be a slightly higher low than Monday, implying the chance of another leg up. My sense is that the fear of tariffs is muddying the water and the general trend is still bullish so the risk is to the upside.
I'm long LYC, NXT and RSG which all did pretty well. I sold a third of the TCL at 1163 and left the rest till the match. Moments before, the stock was suspended as they announced some legal stuff about a Melbourne project which didn't seem to be negative or positive at first glance, more procedural. I still intend to close out the position and will do so in the morning unless the stock rallies strongly.
The small caps were slightly weaker net with AC8 and BUB the culprits. AC8 looks fine although the shorter term charts lead me to think that the current swing might be close to a peak so I'm offering the stock at 173 - today's high - versus the close of 165. I think it might get there tomorrow and I'm happy to get out and wait for a better opportunity. APT closed up 14 and I'm still expecting one big day. Perhaps if the market calms down, that'll be tomorrow.
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