Ex div headwinds
10.42 am There are a lot of stocks going ex dividend today amounting to about 11 points so the rise of 22 points in the index would equate to 33 points under normal conditions. US indices closed only marginally lower as talk of tariff concessions compensated for market fears over Cohn's resignation.
Interestingly, Steve Johnson from Forager Funds, was quoting some bank research he'd read which suggested that since the US economy is far more open than European or Asian economies, the end game might be for more rather than less free trade.
I sold the Transurban early for 4.5 cents higher than last night's close which was a windfall as the news regarding the West Gate bridge seemed to be clearly negative rather than neutral as the market release suggested. The stock is trading 3 cents higher at 1166 but is showing no real signs of action.
Lynas is up a couple of cents and I'm planning to exit today as the congestion looks likely to continue for another day or so. Resolute is about the only medium or large cap gold stock that's higher with gold lower overnight. That's a testament to it's relative strength although I'm hoping to sell some at 124 as I feel I'm late into this swing and I'd rather buy the next pullback. It's currently up 1.5 at 123.
The best result is in NXT where I've been reasonably patient. Having made a higher congestion low yesterday, it has pushed through the top of the recent very narrow range to be up 17 at 688.
I highlighted CCL a couple of days ago as a potential buy. Yesterday it swung back sharply but it has rejected that move today with a good early rise of 2.6% to 896. The correction is over and it's an interesting proposition for a new long although I'm concerned that the potential upside may only be to 920 or so. Worth considering.
The small caps are broadly following the market higher. BUB is showing some life with a rise of 2.5 to 79.5. If it can get into the low 80s today, I think that would constitute a buy signal.
I bought some KGN on the back foot at 784. It was more a feel thing. It seems like a correction which is almost complete to me but there is no buy signal yet. The 5 small waves of the correction are quite clear on the daily chart, also the strength of the chart where the correction is only just coming back to a previous high around 800.
1.26 pm The index is up 33 now though my longs in LYC and NXT have eased back a little. I'm out of half the RSG at 123 with the rest close to dealing now at 125. I really like the stock but with the current swing having started at 110 and the high 120s being my rough target, I'd rather wait for a better entry signal.
One stock I've been watching for a few days is Sydney Airport. It's been weak recently like most of the bond proxies but has been setting up quite bullishly. The breakout from a high shallow correction has come today and this is a possibility for a new long. Wave equality would imply a move to the high 680s so it's just a few percent, however the pattern is pretty strong. Such a move would also signal a short term change of trend so the possible upside could be more of a Fibonacci expansion of 1.6 times the previous swing giving a target around 705-710.
2 pm Afterpay isn't quite accelerating as I'd hoped so I've taken half off at 770 which is up 2 on the day and a pretty good result relative to the entry price of 723 for this tranche.
3.27 pm Out of the other half of the Resolute long at 125. I've also added a part position in A2M which is having a solid up day after a couple of weeks of sideways movement following the blockbuster result. It's still in this tight range so slightly premature but after two weeks the depth of any sell offs have been shallow despite some soft days in the market so I'm reasonably confident the risk/reward is with me.
I've ended up keeping the Lynas - though it's not a big position - as I prevaricated over a couple of opportunities to sell and then decided that my thought of a move to around 250 is still quite plausible.
Given that I'm going to buy some SYD on the close, I'll be a little longer than usual tonight but the stocks are strong enough and the XJO has bounced well off yesterday's higher low so there's a reasonable chance of another day or two of gains.
In the small caps, Kogan has done very well and is now at 831.
4.23 pm The ASX 200 finished up 41 at 5943. A good result and I hope there's some follow through having bought some more A2M and SYD on the match at 666. I'm also long LYC and NXT in the large caps. Lynas finished well at 241, up 2 on the day while NXT had a good day in context with a rise of 8 to 679 but the intraday high was 693 and I had hopes of a breakaway day in this stock....maybe tomorrow.
The small caps had a decent day too.
Interestingly, Steve Johnson from Forager Funds, was quoting some bank research he'd read which suggested that since the US economy is far more open than European or Asian economies, the end game might be for more rather than less free trade.
I sold the Transurban early for 4.5 cents higher than last night's close which was a windfall as the news regarding the West Gate bridge seemed to be clearly negative rather than neutral as the market release suggested. The stock is trading 3 cents higher at 1166 but is showing no real signs of action.
Lynas is up a couple of cents and I'm planning to exit today as the congestion looks likely to continue for another day or so. Resolute is about the only medium or large cap gold stock that's higher with gold lower overnight. That's a testament to it's relative strength although I'm hoping to sell some at 124 as I feel I'm late into this swing and I'd rather buy the next pullback. It's currently up 1.5 at 123.
The best result is in NXT where I've been reasonably patient. Having made a higher congestion low yesterday, it has pushed through the top of the recent very narrow range to be up 17 at 688.
I bought some KGN on the back foot at 784. It was more a feel thing. It seems like a correction which is almost complete to me but there is no buy signal yet. The 5 small waves of the correction are quite clear on the daily chart, also the strength of the chart where the correction is only just coming back to a previous high around 800.
1.26 pm The index is up 33 now though my longs in LYC and NXT have eased back a little. I'm out of half the RSG at 123 with the rest close to dealing now at 125. I really like the stock but with the current swing having started at 110 and the high 120s being my rough target, I'd rather wait for a better entry signal.
One stock I've been watching for a few days is Sydney Airport. It's been weak recently like most of the bond proxies but has been setting up quite bullishly. The breakout from a high shallow correction has come today and this is a possibility for a new long. Wave equality would imply a move to the high 680s so it's just a few percent, however the pattern is pretty strong. Such a move would also signal a short term change of trend so the possible upside could be more of a Fibonacci expansion of 1.6 times the previous swing giving a target around 705-710.
2 pm Afterpay isn't quite accelerating as I'd hoped so I've taken half off at 770 which is up 2 on the day and a pretty good result relative to the entry price of 723 for this tranche.
3.27 pm Out of the other half of the Resolute long at 125. I've also added a part position in A2M which is having a solid up day after a couple of weeks of sideways movement following the blockbuster result. It's still in this tight range so slightly premature but after two weeks the depth of any sell offs have been shallow despite some soft days in the market so I'm reasonably confident the risk/reward is with me.
Given that I'm going to buy some SYD on the close, I'll be a little longer than usual tonight but the stocks are strong enough and the XJO has bounced well off yesterday's higher low so there's a reasonable chance of another day or two of gains.
In the small caps, Kogan has done very well and is now at 831.
4.23 pm The ASX 200 finished up 41 at 5943. A good result and I hope there's some follow through having bought some more A2M and SYD on the match at 666. I'm also long LYC and NXT in the large caps. Lynas finished well at 241, up 2 on the day while NXT had a good day in context with a rise of 8 to 679 but the intraday high was 693 and I had hopes of a breakaway day in this stock....maybe tomorrow.
The small caps had a decent day too.
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