Slipping away
12.40 pm Further falls in US markets of around 2% pushed the overnight SPI futures down a little over 50 points. The result hasn't been as bad as that with the SPI only down 22 and the ASX 200 down 30 with a couple of points of that due to stocks going ex dividend. I only have one large cap long in Resolute which is up a couple of cents as gold pushed higher overnight. Interestingly, longs I cut on Friday in AWC, BPT and STO are higher today and having run through some longer term charts, I think BPT and STO are looking solid in a top 200 where very few other stocks have much going for them. CYB and NXT are two others that have potential but they'd need to rally to confirm that.
The small caps are a touch lower but it's minor overall.
It's possible that the index has hit a low because this swing has dropped below the levels set in early February and is near the top end of the tight trading range set between May and October last year. Valuations are the best they've been for a couple of years and the prospects of growth are reasonable. But the momentum in most world markets is poor and there is no confirmation of a low so rallies are likely to be one or two day wonders until the base is formed.
3.39 pm Resolute has gapped higher and traded in a narrow range. The swing is not obviously complete despite hitting my basic target today. I'm leaning to holding for another night.
Of the potential longs I picked out this morning, CYB and RRL are shaping up well. CYB has held support and reversed higher. I'm not enthused about large upside potential but a 5th wave in this swing could get to 565-570. The strengthening GBP helps the AUD conversion and it's a low risk mortgage lender in an economy with surprisingly strong employment growth and the prospect of wage inflation post Brexit in the parts of the nation where it has its base.
I've been watching Regis Resources, a gold stock, for a week or so as it has made a high consolidation. There's a breakout today that hasn't gone too far so I'm planning to buy some on the match.
4.19 pm The market finished quite well, down just 30 points and I can see a small recovery tomorrow with the proviso that the sell off seems incomplete. I added CYB and RRL, I'm a bit nervous about having two gold longs if there's a recovery but the charts in the sector are good. The large cap gain cancelled out a minor loss in the small caps.
The small caps are a touch lower but it's minor overall.
It's possible that the index has hit a low because this swing has dropped below the levels set in early February and is near the top end of the tight trading range set between May and October last year. Valuations are the best they've been for a couple of years and the prospects of growth are reasonable. But the momentum in most world markets is poor and there is no confirmation of a low so rallies are likely to be one or two day wonders until the base is formed.
3.39 pm Resolute has gapped higher and traded in a narrow range. The swing is not obviously complete despite hitting my basic target today. I'm leaning to holding for another night.
4.19 pm The market finished quite well, down just 30 points and I can see a small recovery tomorrow with the proviso that the sell off seems incomplete. I added CYB and RRL, I'm a bit nervous about having two gold longs if there's a recovery but the charts in the sector are good. The large cap gain cancelled out a minor loss in the small caps.
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